Iran’s Nuclear Deterrence Strategy in the Face of Israeli Threats: A Possible Shift in Nuclear Policy

Iran may need to adjust its nuclear doctrine if Israel poses a severe threat to the country’s survival, according to Adviser to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Kamal Kharazi. While Iran has not yet made the decision to develop nuclear weapons, this stance may change in response to an existential threat. Kharazi warned that if Israel were to target Iran’s nuclear facilities, it could prompt a shift in Iran’s deterrence strategy.

General Ahmad Hajtalab of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who oversees nuclear development in the IRGC, also acknowledged the potential need to reassess Iran’s nuclear doctrine following a potential Israeli attack. Analysts suggest that Iran is on the verge of acquiring nuclear weapons and could become a nuclear power in the near future if the leadership decides to pursue this path. However, the final decision rests with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Iran launched its first independent attack on Israel in April 2024, deploying numerous unmanned aerial vehicles, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles. The majority of these weapons were intercepted and destroyed by Israeli defenses. Reports from Western media outlets indicated that Israel responded with a limited strike aimed at demonstrating force rather than causing significant harm to Iran. The incident underscored the ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel, highlighting the potential impact of these conflicts on Iran’s nuclear doctrine.

In recent years, there have been growing concerns about Iran’s growing military capabilities and its pursuit of nuclear weapons. Some experts believe that if Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons, it could destabilize the Middle East and pose a significant threat to global security.

Despite these concerns, some analysts argue that Iran is unlikely to pursue nuclear weapons due to its religious beliefs and traditional approach to warfare. They suggest that any change in Iran’s policy towards nuclear weapons would be highly controversial within the country and could lead to political instability.

Overall, it remains unclear whether Iran will ultimately decide