On Wednesday, the 14th, the INDEC will release the inflation data for January. According to expert predictions, it is estimated that the rate fell between 20% and 23%. While this figure remains below December’s (25.5%), there has been a slight decrease in the third week of the month.
A first indication of what happened in January is the data from the City of Buenos Aires, which is usually in line with national-level CPI. In Buenos Aires, the increase in January was 21.7%, making it the highest since 2012. The interannual variation of this index amounted to 238.5%.
Economist Rocío Bisang from EcoGo predicts that her inflation estimate for January is 21.2%. She explains that this month was significantly impacted by December’s increases and highlighted specific areas such as Health where prepaid bill prices stood out and Transportation, where gasoline and train/bus prices were particularly influential on inflation rates.
Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, director of Equilibra consulting firm, commented on his preliminary January inflation forecasts: “The data for January was lower than that for December; we gave it a rate of 22.5%.” He attributes this slowdown to a fall in purchasing power due to wages lagging behind prices, resulting in remarking being slowed down. As shown by Clariondemand, demand fell across various sectors including cars, shopping malls, supermarkets, gasoline stations and retail stores during this period.
Fausto Spotorno from Ferreres & Associados estimates that based on over fifteen thousand GBA goods and services prices studied monthly inflation will end close to 18% while interannual growth will be around 244.5%. Moreover he points out that core inflation advanced at a monthly rate of 19.5%, marking an increase of about 688% annually compared to last year’s same period